The peak season of US lines is concentrated: import volume from May to July is expected to reach a new high, and tariff expectations drive advance stocking

Jonathan Gold, vice president of the National Retail Federation, recently said that this year’s traditional peak season in the United States has been advanced to May and June and is expected to extend to July. According to the Global Port Tracking Report jointly released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, container imports at major U.S. ports are expected to hit a record high in July as retailers rush to stockpile goods ahead of expected tariff increases.

Jonathan Gold pointed out in his analysis that this year's peak season is expected to last until July, and retailers and other importers are preparing in advance for higher tariffs and other trade uncertainties that may take effect in August. He also mentioned the continued impact of the Iran conflict on the supply chain, and said that the back-to-school season and winter holiday stocking needs have started in advance, and retailers continue to speed up the pace of importing goods to avoid the cost pressure caused by a new round of tariff increases. Although the economy still faces headwinds and consumers’ willingness to spend has not diminished, purchasing power has become a key variable affecting consumer behavior.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said that import volume is experiencing a sharp rise, and the strong growth momentum is expected to run through July, which mainly reflects the market's concentrated release of advance stocking in anticipation of tariff increases.

The "Global Port Tracking Report" shows that U.S. port container imports in May were 2.24 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. Import volume is expected to further climb to 2.33 million TEU in June, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. Based on this projection, the total import volume of U.S. ports in the first half of 2026 will reach 12.77 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%.

The report predicts that July import volume will reach 2.47 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and is expected to exceed the monthly record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022. Since then, import volume is expected to fall back to 2.22 million TEU in August, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%; in September it was 1.99 million TEU, a decrease of 5.7%; in October it was approximately 1.99 million TEU, a decrease of 3.8%; in November it further dropped to 1.92 million TEU.

Data shows that this year’s US peak season window has been moved forward to May to July, which is obviously misaligned with the traditional peak season centered on October. The total volume of U.S. container imports in 2025 will be 25.4 million TEU, a slight decrease of 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.