The two heavens of ice and fire! Container shipping starts in 2026: U.S. line freight rates surge by 26%, but European ports are choked with "smoke"

According to data released on January 9, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index (SCFI) reported 1,647.39 points, a slight decrease of 0.5% from the previous week. The performance of major routes varied: the demand for European routes was stable, and the freight rate from Shanghai to the European basic port increased by 1.7% to US,719/TEU; the Mediterranean route continued its upward trend, and the freight rate increased by 2.8% to US,232/TEU. The North American route maintained an upward trend, with the freight rate from Shanghai to the US West rising by 1.4% to US,218/FEU, and the freight rate from Shanghai to the US East rising by 3.1% to US,128/FEU, with the price difference between the two widening to US0.

At the same time, the Drewry World Containerized Index (WCI) showed stronger upward momentum, rising sharply by 16% to US,557/FEU as of January 8. On specific routes, the spot freight rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles surged 26% to US,132/FEU, and the freight rate from Shanghai to New York surged 20% to US,957/FEU. Asia-Europe routes also increased, with freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa increasing by 10% and 13% respectively.

Major liner companies such as Maersk are "cautiously optimistic" about the Asia-Pacific market in early 2026. Despite geopolitical uncertainty and capacity fluctuations, growth in intra-Asia trade, the pursuit of agility in supply chains and preparations for the Spring Festival have provided support to the market. In response to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, Maersk has planned to cancel 7 sailings on the trans-Pacific route to balance supply and demand.

Part of the market's resilience comes from the solid performance of China's exports. Customs data shows that China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year in November 2025, and cumulative exports from January to November increased by 5.4%. Global trade flows are undergoing profound changes. Driven by manufacturing shifts and regional integration, Asia-Africa container transportation demand surged by 22.6% between 2019 and 2025. Cargo volumes within Asia and to emerging markets such as Latin America have also grown significantly, partially replacing the traditional east-west trunk routes.

The possibility of navigation in the Red Sea region remains the focus of market attention. Maersk confirmed that its ship "Maersk Sebarok" completed its first voyage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the past two years from December 18 to 19, 2025. The company emphasized that this is only an initial attempt and that the full restoration of Red Sea routes will be a gradual process while ensuring continued safety.

At an operational level, severe weather in Northern Europe has disrupted port efficiency. Heavy snowfall in early January affected operations at major ports such as Hamburg, Rotterdam and Antwerp, causing ship delays. In the long term, the yard utilization rate of some key European ports continues to be high. The utilization rate of some terminals in Antwerp has reached about 90%. Large container ships in Rotterdam have to wait 24-48 hours. Potential congestion risks still need to be vigilant.

The start of 2026 once again confirms that uncertainty has become the new normal in the shipping industry. Geopolitical events at the beginning of the year, such as the US military action against Venezuela on January 3, added variables to the global trade environment. In the context of trade fragmentation, regional conflicts and operational challenges, sticking to past experience is no longer enough to cope with the future. Industry participants need to change their way of thinking, increase their awareness of the significant impact that small variables may have, and use greater flexibility and adaptability to find certainty in the cycle of "every year is sad and every year passes" and respond to the market environment where "everything is possible".

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Sunny Worldwide Logistics - Founded in 1998, it is an international freight forwarding company in China. It has its own 1,800 square meters of Grade A office buildings in Shenzhen. Our mission is to provide Hongmingda freight forwarding, except for natural disasters. With 27 years of experience as a freight forwarder, there are no pitfalls that I don’t know about.

Sunny Worldwide Logistics provides one-stop services related to sea transportation, land transportation, air transportation, railway, customs declaration, warehousing, inspection, trailering, fumigation, insurance and other related services.

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