Freight Rates Skyrocket Over 60%! Direct Sailings Turn Transshipment, Rolled Cargo Without Warning
Recently, the demand for freight from Asia to the United States has increased significantly. The industry generally believes that one of the main driving factors for this round of shipment peak is the great uncertainty in the US tariff policy, and cargo owners are rushing to rush shipments to avoid the risk of potential tax increases.
At the same time, the U.S. Independence Day stocking demand combined with the consumption boost brought by large-scale international events has further promoted the rapid growth of the demand for replenishment in the U.S. terminal market. Affected by the above-mentioned growth in demand, many shipping companies have successively launched a new round of freight rate increase plans.
The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has risen for five consecutive weeks, reporting 2,571.73 points on May 29, an increase of 15.9% from the previous period, setting a new high since September 2024.
The increase in the US route is even more astonishing - in just one month, the US-West route has experienced a phased increase of nearly 76%, and the US-East route has increased by more than 60%, setting a new record for the year.
This wave of price increases is not a small adjustment by the shipping company, but a structural surge caused by the superposition of triple costs:
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Basic freight rate increase: Starting from June, mainstream shipping companies’ U.S. line freight rates will uniformly increase the peak season surcharge (PSS).
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Plus: Maersk will impose PSS fuel surcharge from June 17
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Linked increase: MSC will increase emergency fuel surcharge (EFS) from June 1
When these three layers of expenses are superimposed, export costs continue to rise, with no signs of falling in the short term.
According to the analysis of Huatai Futures, Maersk's quotation continued to increase in the second week of June, market demand is still resilient, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices.
The core reason for the skyrocketing freight rates is the extremely scarce space resources and the serious imbalance between market supply and demand.
Currently,Yantian, Nansha, NingboThe rate of dumping containers at major shipping ports has reached a maximum of 55%, and the postponement rate of booking cargo on some routes exceeds 80%. The specific performance is:
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For a regular booking of 20 containers, usually only 2 can be shipped as originally planned;
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Seats on the American and European routes in East China are nearly sold out in early June.
"Book one class and skip another" has become a common situation in the industry.
According to China Aviation Weekly, the space for some routes in June is close to being sold out, and the current shipment peak is expected to last for 1-2 months.
The current core pain point of US line shipments has changed: it is no longer a question of "whether the freight price is high", but "Can I get a cabin and can I get on the ship normally?"question.
Recently, some freight forwarders have reported that another troublesome situation has arisen in the US shipping market: when booking, it was shown as a direct flight, but after the ship left, it turned into a transit in Busan.
The shipping companies involved include mainstream shipping companies such as Maersk, Yang Ming Shipping and ONE.
What’s even more troublesome is that many cabinets were dumped after arriving in Busan. Some are a week late, and some even have to wait a week.Wait half a month. During the whole process, the shipping company did not take the initiative to issue a notice——There is neither email reminder nor system push.
Many freight forwarders only found out that the original direct shipping containers had been transferred to Busan when checking shipping schedules.
According to industry insiders, this situation may be related to the terms of the bill of lading. Most shipping companies will reserve the right in the bill of lading that "the carrier may adjust the route or transshipment method according to actual conditions."
When space is tight during the peak season, shipping companies often prioritize local cargo sources or large customer cargo volumes, and some temporary transshipment containers are more likely to be arranged for subsequent shipping.
In other words, the loading priority of temporarily dumped transit containers is usually the lowest. Once the subsequent ship also bursts, this batch of goods will be easily rolled out again.
For cargo owners, the biggest impact is time delays. But for freight forwarders, what is even more embarrassing is that the information is not transparent.
The customer thinks that the order is a direct flight, but it turns out to be a transit. In the end, the pressure of explanation and communication often falls on the freight forwarder.
Some insiders suggest that during the subsequent booking or signing process, you can confirm in advance whether there is a direct flight commitment clause, and at the same time understand whether the cabin insurance coverage covers situations such as container dumping at transit ports.
As the US peak season gradually heats up, whether similar situations will increase in the future deserves continued attention.
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